The IMF on Wednesday published its predictions on countries for the 2006-2013 period in its World Economic Outlook, assessing Turkey with its new figures, which the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) updated in accordance with a new basis year. Turkey had been calculating its national accounts by taking 1987 as the basis year, following UN procedures. However, it recently switched to using 1998 figures as the basis for calculations and adopted the methodologies of the EU. This change in method caused the GDP of the country to grow by one-third on paper. Turkey is currently accepted as the 19th largest economy in the world.
This change in methodology doesn't create real growth in the economy, but it does include parts of the economy that previously existed but were not taken into consideration in GDP calculations. Calculations performed by the Anatolia news agency on the IMF predictions for world economies show that Turkey would remain in 19th place with $773.7 billion if it hadn't changed its system.
Turkey's gross national product (GNP), on the other hand, is expected to be $748.3 billion for 2008, and this figure will keep it in 17th place among the world's largest economies in terms of GNP.
The first five countries in terms of GDP-PPP will be the same as in 2007 -- the US, China, Japan, India and Germany. Russia will overtake Britain to become the sixth richest nation by raising its GDP-PPP to $2.28 trillion. Russia is moving up the list decisively as it had also passed France in 2006 to take seventh place. Currently 18th, Iran will also enjoy a rise in its place among the top 20 as it will move ahead of Australia to take the 17th ranking. Turkey comes in just behind South Korea.
Although Turkey is among the leading economies in terms of the aggregate size of its economy, it is located somewhere in the middle in terms of the per capita GDP-PPP. Turkey will be 60th after Malaysia with its $13,511 per capita GDP.
The figures obtained from the IMF report also indicate that the world's wealthiest people will be living in Qatar, where the per capita GDP-PPP will be $84,833 by the end of the year. It will be followed by Luxembourg ($83,456) and Norway ($55,452).
The IMF predictions further note that Indonesia will pass Turkey, leaving the latter in 16th place by 2011. Indonesia has $906.7 billion in GDP-PPP but it will reach $1.16 trillion in GDP-PPP in three years, when Turkey will only have $1.15 trillion.
Another striking prediction from the IMF is that India will pass Japan by 2013 if it can maintain its current pace of development. Brazil will become the eighth largest economy in 2013, surpassing France, and Mexico will rise to first place by overtaking Spain. South Korea will replace Canada to become the 13th largest economy. The Netherlands is expected to drop out of the top 20 league this year, but Poland, currently 21st, will enter this group for the first time.